Air Force needs hundreds more fighters, service says

By Michael Marrow and Valerie Insinna

     The Air Force says it needs to dramatically grow its fighter fleet by hundreds of manned, combat-ready jets over the next decade in order to meet expected threats to America — a massive expansion of procurement plans that may not be feasible due to funding limits and production constraints.  

     Overall, a new, unclassified, ten-year fighter force structure plan dated this month and submitted to Congress says that the service needs a total of 1,558 combat-coded fighter jets — nearly 300 more than a current estimated inventory of 1,271 in fiscal 2026 — to meet the Trump administration’s Interim National Defense Strategic Guidance.

     The plan was signed by Air Force Secretary Troy Meink and is mandated by the fiscal 2025 National Defense Authorization Act to be submitted every year through 2029. While the document does not explicitly ask Congress for additional funds, its outlining of how more dollars could be used to boost fighter production, combined with its unclassified nature, are likely intended to encourage lawmakers to consider providing greater resources to the service. 

     “The Department of the Air Force (DAF) is focused on modernizing current fifth generation and legacy capability fighter aircraft fleets, expanding exquisite warfighting capabilities, and acquiring new advanced fighter capability,” the report says, noting that the service will “procure aircraft commensurate with production of full combat capability.” 

     To reach the goal of 1,558 jets over the next 10 years, the service says it needs to procure fighters at a greater rate. A target inventory of 1,369 aircraft could be reached by “early 2030,” but due to various competing modernization demands, the report warns the service may not be able to afford the requisite production.

     A key step to “meet acceptable military risk milestones by 2030” entails the Air Force maxing out procurement of the Boeing F-15EX and Lockheed Martin F-35A.

     According to the report, Boeing could achieve a max annual production rate of two dozen F-15EXs by FY27. The aerospace giant could further expand to an annual rate of up to 36 jets with “additional funding for facilities,” the report notes. The document asserts that the Air Force is currently programmed for 129 F-15EXs and expects 126 to be delivered by the end of 2030, which is “nine months behind schedule.”

     “We expect the F-15 production line to remain active well into the next decade, with aircraft operating through the 2050s. With current international F-15 customers expressing interest in new builds and upgrades to existing platforms, Boeing plans production for domestic and international customers,” Mark Sears, Boeing vice president for fighters, said in a statement to Breaking Defense. “We are increasing production to meet anticipated demand and plan to double output to 24 aircraft in the coming years.”

     Despite the F-35 being something of a loser in the FY26 budget, the report describes the jet as “the foundation of the USAF fighter force structure” that will play a “critical” role in suppressing enemy air defenses. Pointing to hardware and software shortages with new upgrades, the report says the Air Force “seeks to rapidly increase F-35 procurement” once issues are ironed out. 

     The Air Force has long said its F-35A program of record is 1,763 aircraft, which the Trump administration does not appear to have changed. And the document states that Lockheed could churn out 100 F-35As a year by FY30.

     But hitting that production figure for the US Air Force alone, as the document appears to suggest, would be a dramatic change for the F-35 program, and would likely come with steep manufacturing and budget pressures — and, potentially, require prioritizing the US Air Force over other partner nations. For example, the program’s deal for Lot 19, whose deliveries are scheduled to begin in 2027, covers a total of 148 copies of the tri-variant stealth fighter, of which 105 are A variants — with just 40 reserved for the US Air Force and 65 set aside for foreign buyers. (Production lots do not neatly map on to calendar years, but roughly equal a year’s worth of manufacturing.) 

     Lockheed officials have said the firm can currently produce a total of 156 aircraft per year, which could stretch to roughly 165 with additional capacity via a new partnership with the German company Rheinmetall to produce center fuselages. The Air Force originally hoped to procure as many as 80 F-35As annually.  

     “The F-35 offers the most advanced fighter capability and technology and is the most affordable option to ensure America and its allies remain ahead of emerging threats. We appreciate the U.S. Air Force’s continued confidence in the combat-proven F-35 and investment in national defense,” a Lockheed spokesperson said in a statement to Breaking Defense. 

     “This solidifies our confidence in the build rate, and we are positioned to meet the increased demand,” the spokesperson added. “We will continue to work closely with the [F-35] Joint Program Office to ensure we are supporting the requirements of our U.S. and international customers.”

     Growing to that 2035 fleet target size will involve more than just the F-15 and F-35.

     The service’s future fighter force projections include the forthcoming F-47 sixth-generation aircraft that the Air Force selected Boeing earlier this year to build, which the service called its “number one modernization priority” in the fighter portfolio along with Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA) drone wingmen. The report says the F-47’s production lines are set to open “soon” but a projected procurement figure was not included in the unclassified version of the document. 

     However, there may also be some accounting help to get the service to this new figure. The report offers a new way to count the service’s fighter force structure, arguing that a metric encompassing platforms like backup and attrition reserve aircraft, called Combat Coded Total Aircraft Inventory, offers a more accurate assessment. 

     An important feature of the Air Force’s fighter structure strategy requires retiring aging aircraft, such as the service’s goal of clearing out A-10s from its inventory by the end of FY26 and the “partial retirement” of Block 20 F-22 aircraft that lawmakers have previously blocked. Restricting the aircraft the Air Force can divest, the report says, “decreases overall aircraft availability rates and directly impacts operational readiness.” 

     In an apparent nod to concerns about how offloading legacy aircraft can impact National Guard and Reserve units, the report stresses that the Guard will retain 24 fighter squadrons “well beyond 2045” that will be recapitalized with modernized F-16s or new F-15EXs and F-35s. For its part, the Reserve will retire two A-10 units and transition an F-16 unit at Nellis Air Force Base to “classic association,” Air Force jargon for sharing equipment with an active duty unit. The Reserve is “programmed to maintain two F-35 units,” the report adds. 

     The goal of 1,558 jets counts manned aircraft, a number that will be complemented by the Air Force’s CCA program. The report stresses that CCA are “not a replacement for manned fighter aircraft” and that the drones will be paired with F-22s and F-35s, with the F-22 serving as the “threshold platform” for drone integration. The Air Force will eventually link drone wingmen to the F-47, while other platforms like the F-15E, F-15EX and F-16 are under consideration as well. 

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Photo caption: An F-35A (above) and an F-15EX (below). (Images via DVIDS)